45:58 | Gerald Baker
Yeah, a bad result for Russia I think, for the reason I said. I do think, again, it wasn't a major
threat, but I do think there was much more of a question mark over the scale of USA support
to Ukraine if the Republicans had got a big majority. That's clearly not happening, so I think
that is bad news for Russia.
Iran, I think we're now at the point where Biden has been trying to get this deal with Iran, to
sort of resurrect a deal to deal with Iran's nuclear program and lift sanctions. He's been trying
that for two years, has largely failed. I don't think this changes anything. If anything, again, you
do have a Republican majority, probably in the House, which is hostile, doesn't have a big
influence over foreign policy. The Senate remains pretty well the same. So, I don't think that
changes, which is Iran doesn't get significant, there's unlikely to be any significant
improvement on that.
China, you know, as again as we talked about earlier, there is a bipartisan consensus now, as
you've seen very, very clearly a bipartisan consensus to take a very, very tough line with China.
That doesn't change as a result of this. I mean, one interesting question, some people might
be, trade more generally. Does this, again, a Republican majority in the House and again, a
very small Republican split Senate, does that change the picture on trade? It might do. I mean,
the Republicans might be a little more favorable, for example, to a trade deal with the U.K.,
which I know Britain is very keen to get. Again, you know, that's got to go through the Biden
administration still, so it's hard to see. The Biden administration has been concerned about
the Brexit deal and the Northern Ireland protocol, in particular. So I'm not sure there's going to
be much there change. So look, I think the overall picture in terms of the geopolitics is, with
the exception of Ukraine where I think there is a significant, the result is different from what it
could have, I think, you know, we're going to see the next two years very much as we've seen
them. And the next big question will be what happens in the presidential election in two years'
time and where does that put America in relation to the rest of the world?
47:29 | William Lewis
Ok, and no news on Arizona as we've been speaking Gerry?
47:31 | Gerald Baker
Not that I've seen, no.
47:35 | William Lewis
Phoenix is the place to pay most attention to, right?
47:38 | Gerald Baker
Yeah, Maricopa county is the big population center in Arizona. It typically is quite close,
actually, and I think we're waiting to see a big dump of votes from Arizona. Arizona counts
votes in a very strange way. They accumulate lots of votes and they dump them like every six
or eight hours, over a period of days. So, the next one could come any minute and it will be
critical in telling how much - the Democrats, again, the Democrats are very narrowly ahead in
the governor's race in Arizona and a little bit further ahead in the Senate race. We'll see
whether this next dump of votes increases those leads or actually maybe gives the
Republicans a chance, then.
48:18 | William Lewis